LUNC Price Prediction | Will Terra Classic Survive?
October 30, 2023
In this LUNC price prediction of Terra Classic and the LUNC token, we go over the key variables that will influence the price of LUNC. We also outline our price prediction for the LUNC token for 2023 and onwards. Keep reading and see if you agree with our price prediction for LUNC!
In order to develop some end-of-the-year price assumptions for LUNC, there are a few different variables that we need to take into consideration.
These variables include the macro environment, current valuations in addition to positive and negative catalysts.
When thinking through possible price predictions for any asset class, we have to have some sense of where the economy is at the macro level.
At the time of writing, the FED has continued raising rates in 2023 and the federal funds rate is now at 5%-5.25%.
The last raise occurred in May of this year when the FED raised an additional 0.25% which was the 10th increase since March 2022. The market is currently pricing in that the rates will remain high (above 4%) for the next 2 years.
This matters primarily for two reasons. When interest rates are this high, investors prefer to earn safer returns by investing in high-yielding bonds. Also, the effects of high rates can also have a more volatile impact on the economy.
These factors (and others) mean that investors are likely to shy away from more risky assets such as cryptocurrencies. Historically speaking, high-risk assets perform well during times of low rates and high liquidity and perform poorly during times of high rates and more restricted liquidity.
From this point of view, we think it’s unlikely that crypto as a whole will see much price increase this year unless there are specific catalysts that could produce momentum and interest for a particular asset.
Terra Classic Price Prediction
If we look at the Total Value Locked (TVL) on Terra Classic, we see that this value has continuously been going down since the collapse of Terra in May 2022. The current TVL stands at an all-time low of $2.7M which is peanuts when it comes to DeFi.
This tells us that users are no longer flocking to Terra Classic the way they used to in the past.
The reason for this is that many prominent projects left Terra Classic after it collapsed, but also because there is less trust in the blockchain itself.
And when it comes to the growth of its developer ecosystem, we see a similar story with most high-profile projects having abandoned Terra Classic.
These projects have either built their own application-specific blockchains in the Cosmos ecosystem or simply migrated to other Cosmos blockchains such as SEI, Osmosis and Injective.
In other words, having capital and developers abandoning your blockchain is more or less a death sentence, and we see little reason why either would return.
The smart contract landscape is also becoming even more saturated with new CosmWasm entrants (The same Virtual Machine that Terra Classic uses) such as Neutron, Archway and many others. As such, we think very few developers will find their way to Terra Classic.
Terra Luna Classic Price Prediction
In short, we think it’s highly unlikely that Terra Classic will ever find the type of momentum that it once had as there are too many superior alternatives for developers to choose from.
The one thing that Terra Classic has going for it and could be the basis for a price increase in the future is its memetic power.
Similar to meme coins like Doge, Shiba Inu and others, Terra Classic and the LUNC token has now more or less become a meme.
But even here Terra Classic and the LUNC token are competing with the continuous launch of new meme coins that temporarily capture the public attention.
Unless there is a particular catalyst that once again throws Terra Classic into the spotlight, we think it’s unlikely it will be competitive in the meme world either.
LUNC Price Prediction 2023
Terra Classic and the LUNC token currently have a fully diluted valuation of almost $600 million at a current price of $0.00008528.
The circulating supply is 5.9 billion with a max supply of 6.8B. This means that most LUNC tokens are already circulating with no massive unlocks ahead that could potentially further tank the price.
Having said that, if we look at the chart of LUNC, we see that it’s basically down only since the collapse of Terra in May last year.
Based on the current macro environment and the fact that we do not see any clear future catalysts for the Terra Classic chain, we think this slow bleed will continue until the end of the year.
Our prediction is that by the end of the year 2023, Terra Classic's market cap will have halved to a fully diluted valuation of $300 million and a price of $0.00004264 per LUNC.
LUNC Price Prediction 2024
Our prediction is that by the end of the year 2024, Terra Classic's market cap will have further been reduced to a fully diluted valuation of $100 million and a price of $0.00001264 per LUNC.
Terra Classic Price Prediction 2025
Our prediction is that by the end of the year 2025, Terra Classic's market cap will have further been lowered to a fully diluted valuation of $50 million and a price of $0.000005264 per LUNC.
Terra Classic Price Prediction 2026
Our prediction is that by the end of the year 2026, Terra Classic's market cap will have cratered even further to fully diluted valuation of $5 million and a price of $0.0000003264 per LUNC.
Terra Classic Price Prediction 2027
Our prediction is that by the end of the year 2027, there will be no more validators running the Terra Classic blockchains and as such, it will no longer exist.